Newsweek - Maine is likely a must-win for Democrats hoping to reclaim control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Collins is the only Republican in a Harris-won state up for reelection. Democrats also view an open race in battleground North Carolina as a prime pickup opportunity, but other potential flips would require them to win more conservative territory.
Mills will bring high name recognition into the race, as voters are already familiar with her from her stint as attorney general and governor. She flipped the governor’s office in 2020, winning by about seven points, and won reelection in 2022 by nearly 13 points against former Governor Paul LePage. She is unable to run for reelection due to term limits.
But she may face a competitive primary against Platner, Maine Beer Company co-founder Dan Kleban and Wood, the former President of End Citizens United, all of whom have already announced their campaigns.
Polling on the Senate race remains limited despite its importance for the midterms.
Polls have generally found that Mills enjoys stronger approval than Collins.
A University of New Hampshire poll from over the summer found that 14 percent of Mainers view Collins favorably, while 57 percent view her unfavorably. An additional 26 percent were neutral. Meanwhile, 51 percent of Mainers view Mills favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. Only 7 percent were neutral on Mills, according to the survey, which surveyed 846 Mainers between June 19 and June 23. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A Pan Atlantic Research poll yielded better results for Collins, finding that 49 percent of Mainers view her favorably and 45 percent view her unfavorable. It found that 52 percent of respondents viewed Mills favorably, while 44 percent viewed her unfavorably. It surveyed 840 likely voters from May 12 to May 26, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Morning Consult found earlier this year that Mills had a net approval rating of +2—making her the least popular Democratic governor in the country—though Collins’ approval was -16. That poll took place from April to June of this year, and the sample sizes varied by state.